A bit of good news amid the bad: Pending home sales rose in February, climbing for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Each of the four major regions experienced an increase in month-over-month contract activity, as well as growth in year-over-year pending home sales transactions compared to a year ago at the same time, according to a NAR news release.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), considered a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4% to 111.5 in February. Year-over-year contract signings also increased by 9.4%. An index of 100 is equivalent to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“February’s pending sales figures show the housing market had been very healthy prior to the coronavirus-induced shutdown,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist in the news release.
He added the data does not capture the significant decline from the pandemic or the measures taken to control the outbreak. “Numbers in the coming weeks will show just how hard the housing market was hit, but I am optimistic that the upcoming stimulus package will lessen the economic damage and we may get a V-shaped robust recovery later in the year.”

Yun said that most certainly there will be a longer stay of inventory in the market from reduced short-term demand, citing data from active listings at realtor.com that show year-over-year increases. Markets drawing some of the most significant buyer attention include Colorado Springs, Colo.; Lafayette, Ind.; Modesto, Calif.; Rochester, N.Y.; and Sacramento, Calif.

“Housing, just like most other industries, suffered from the coronavirus crisis, but once this predicament is behind us and the habit of social distancing is respected, I’m encouraged there will be continued home transactions though with more virtual tours, electronic signatures, and external home appraisals,” Yun also said in the news release. “Many of the home sales that are likely to be missed during the first part of 2020 may simply be pushed into late summer and autumn parts of the year.”

February Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI rose 2.8% to 96.3 in February, 5.9% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index increased 4.5% to 110.1 last month, 14.9% higher than in February 2019.

Pending home sales in the South went up 0.1% to an index of 129.2 in February, a 7.1% increase from February 2019. The index in the West rose 4.6% in February 2020 to 97.1, an increase of 10.8% from a year ago.

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The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20% of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Source: NAR