More changes in the real estate market are happening and despite escalating mortgage rates and slumping home sales in the second quarter of 2022, a greater number of markets experienced double-digit annual price gains compared to the prior quarter.
This is according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report and 80 percent of the 185 tracked metro areas posted double-digit price gains, up from 70% in the first quarter of this year.
Nationally, the median single-family existing-home price eclipsed $400,000 for the first time, rising 14.2% from one year ago to $413,500. Year-over-year price appreciation eased slightly compared to the previous quarter’s 15.4%, according to a news release.
“Home prices have increased at a pace that far exceeds wage gains, especially for low- and middle-income workers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in the news release. “Overall, the national price deceleration inevitably followed the softening sales, providing well-positioned prospective buyers a small measure of welcomed relief. The recent dips in mortgage rates will bring additional buyers to the market, especially in those places where home prices are still relatively affordable and where jobs are being added.”
Regionally, the South accounted for 44% of single-family existing-home sales in the second quarter and posted the largest price appreciation of 18.2%. Prices increased 12.7% in the West, 10.1% in the Northeast, and 9.7% in the Midwest.1
The top 10 metro areas with the largest year-over-year price gains all recorded increases greater than 25%, with seven of those markets located in Florida. Those include Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-Mo. (31.9%); Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. (31.4%); Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla. (28.9%); North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (28.8%); Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C. (28.5%); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (28.0%); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. (27.8%); Punta Gorda, Fla. (27.4%); Ocala, Fla. (26.7%); and Ogden-Clearfield, Utah (25.5%).
The top 10 most expensive markets in the U.S., half of which were in California, included San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. ($1,900,000; 11.8%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($1,550,000; 11.9%); Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif. ($1,300,000; 17.2%); Urban Honolulu, Hawaii ($1,145,000; 17.3%); San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. ($965,900; 13.6%); Boulder, Colo. ($933,400; 11.8%); Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla. ($850,000; 28.9%); Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. ($825,700; 9.2%); Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. ($818,900; 14.4%); and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. ($722,200; 8.9%).
“The local job market performance and supply availability are the clear distinguishing factors driving local home price growth,” Yun added. “Job growth is positive and should be applauded, but supply restraints are creating unnecessary barriers to ownership opportunities.”
Housing affordability dramatically tumbled in the second quarter of 2022, driven by sharply rising mortgage rates and climbing home prices. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment jumped to $1,841. That’s an increase of $444 – or 32% – from the first quarter of this year and $612 – or 50% – from one year ago. Families typically spent 24.3% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 18.7% the prior quarter and 16.9% one year ago, the news release added.
Growing unaffordability impacted first-time buyers looking to purchase a typical home during the second quarter of 2022. For a typical starter home valued at $351,500 with a 10% down payment loan, the mortgage payment rose to $1,810 – a bounce of $433 (or 31%) from the prior quarter and $597 (or 49%) from one year ago. First-time buyers typically spent 36.8% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 28.7% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment (principal and interest) amounts to over 25% of the family’s income.2
A family needed at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 53 markets, nearly double the 27 markets from the prior quarter. Yet, a family needed less than $50,000 to afford a home in 23 markets, down significantly from 63 markets in the previous quarter.
1 Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available here.
Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.
Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.
NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-operative housing.
2 Housing costs are burdensome if they take up more than 30% of income. The 25% share of mortgage payment to income considers the idea that homeowners have additional expenses, including mortgage insurance, home insurance, taxes, and expenses for property maintenance.